Background

Over the last 50 years mean annual temperature in Serbia had increased by 1.2°C, while summer season warmed even more, by 1.8°C. Alongside the warming, we are experiencing increased climate variability, with more frequent and severe extreme weather events such as droughts, heat waves, heavy precipitation, floods.

Climate change that we are experiencing is altering phenophases dynamics of all plants, increasing year-to year variability of yields’ quality and quantity, causing more frequent damages due to the late spring frost, hail, high temperature and insolation, droughts, pests and diseases.

Economy losses and damages due to the natural disasters in Serbia over the last 20 years are estimated at minimum 7.5 billion EUR. Of that number, more than 5 billion EUR are caused by droughts. One single drought in 2012 brought us over 2 billion EUR of losses. Heavy floods in 2014 caused loss of 1.5 billion EUR, of which 120 million EUR was damages in agricultural sector.

Meteorological and climate information, such as observation and short-term weather forecast, are commonly used in agricultural practice. However, in order to develop climate change resilient agricultural production, it is necessary to have relevant weather information months in advance. Agricultural producers do not commonly use long-term (seasonal) weather forecast in planning their practice mainly because it is not easily assessable, it has coarse spatial resolution and products are too complicated to understand and not specifically made for agriculture.

With IAPS project we hope to bridge the gap between the producers’ need to improve and protect their yields from weather-related hazards and the meteorological service’s ability to provide timely and precise information.

Objectives

Our aim is to increase the climate resilience of agricultural plant production in Serbia, by advancing producers’ understanding of meteorological and climate information and broadening its use for planning the field activities.

In order to achieve the main goal we will have to:

  • Identify weather-related risks to agricultural plant production in Serbia, their frequency of occurrence and their spatial distribution

  • Develop the Integrated Agro-Meteorological Prediction System (IAPS) that will downscale a long-term seasonal weather forecast and couple it with plant impact models

  • Develop a set of customized IAPS forecast products that are easy to understand and use

  • Transfer knowledge to agricultural producers and advisers in order to enable them to efficiently implement IAPS products into their planning and decision-making processes

Team

Our team is small, but chosen with a great care. It is well balanced between two scientific fields, meteorology and agriculture.

Maybe we are considered as young researchers, but we are experienced in numerical modeling of the atmosphere and the climate system, climate change vulnerability and impact assessment, climate change adaptation in agriculture, crop modeling, irrigation, water use efficiency, viticulture, fruit science, organic production, clonal selection, hybridization and genetic resources.

We are all dedicated to apply the science in resolving the real life problems and to create products that will be useful and easy to understand and use.

Mirjam Vujadinović Mandić
Mirjam Vujadinović Mandić
PhD in Meteorological Sciences
University of Belgrade – Faculty of Agriculture, Assistant Professor
Ana Vuković Vimić
Ana Vuković Vimić
PhD in Meteorological Sciences
University of Belgrade – Faculty of Agriculture, Associate Professor

Vladimir Đurđević
Vladimir Đurđević
PhD in Meteorological Sciences
University of Belgrade – Faculty of Physics, Associate Professor

Zorica Ranković-Vasić
Zorica Ranković-Vasić
PhD in Biotechnical Sciences
University of Belgrade – Faculty of Agriculture, Associate Professor
Marija Ćosić
Marija Ćosić
PhD in Biotechnical Sciences
University of Belgrade – Faculty of Agriculture, Assistant Professor
Dragan Nikolić
Dragan Nikolić
PhD in Biotechnical Sciences
University of Belgrade – Faculty of Agriculture, Professor